Bitcoin researcher Smithson With has presented a new approach to predicting the crypto's cycle top price using a quantile regression model.
Bitcoin researcher Smithson With has presented a new approach to predicting the crypto's cycle top price using a quantile regression model.
This model, according to the researcher, suggests that Bitcoin's price could potentially reach as high as $275,000 by November 2025.
The researcher explains that the quantile regression model prioritizes all cumulative Bitcoin data, including supply, volatility, distribution over time, and survivability in any risk environment, to present various percentiles or quantiles.
This approach, unlike traditional linear regression, provides a deeper insight into potential outcomes by focusing on the extremes, in this case, the 99th percentile.
The researcher's analysis indicates that the current projection is a simulation of a 99th percentile power-law regression model, which is drawn using Bitcoin price data dating back to July 2013. With notes that the model's trajectory and price prediction for November 1, 2025, have "dramatically" changed over time, but a "quasi-exponential decay trend" has emerged.
A quasi-exponential decay trend suggests that the period of deviation from the actual trend has either halved or doubled over time.
The researcher believes that further analysis, which could channel these deviations through a decay period and evaluate multiple percentiles, may eventually confirm a cycle top value between $250,000 and $300,000 in 2025.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's current price action has seen the crypto quickly recover to around $64,000 after dropping to as low as $62,825 on September 30. Luckshury, the lead at the trading platform Exocharts, highlights that Bitcoin's uptrend is likely to continue if the key support at $63,200 holds.
This price point, known as the point-of-control (POC), is where the most trading activity has taken place during the recent uptrend.
However, Luckshury warns that losing the $63,200 support in the next few days could change the trend bias and potentially trigger a correction period. A move above the immediate overhead resistance at $64,700 would be a bullish signal for the next leg up.
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