Gray swan is a significant event whose occurrence could be predicted, but the likelihood is low.
A gray swan event is a predictable event with a low likelihood of occurring. Its defining characteristics are:
It can be predicted.
It carries a huge impact with a domino effect.
After it occurs, explanations are created that recognize its predicted probability, but the focus is shifted to human error in judgment.
For individuals and organizations, it could mean creating a response plan that is the go-to for a specific crisis. In other cases, it could mean holding simulations to build muscle memory so that you know how to respond.
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