There’s an eight day window between Nov. 9 and Nov. 17 where all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings could be approved by the SEC, according to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas. The United States Securities and Exchange...
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
“Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time,” Seyffart wrote in a Nov. 8 post on X (formerly Twitter).
“If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale's court victory was affirmed.”
The reason for this brief window is that when the SEC extended the deadline for a number of the pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, it selected Nov. 8 as the last day of the comment period.
While the window for accepting all 12 filings ends on Nov. 17, Seyffart added that the SEC could technically make a decision on nine of the twelve applications anytime before Jan. 10.
While the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is in no way guaranteed, both Seyffart and Balchunas predict a 90% chance of an approval sometime before Jan. 10 next year.
Grayscale in talks with SEC over GBTC conversion
While market pundits eagerly await the SEC’s decision, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly initiated discussions with the regulator concerning its application to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a Nov. 9 report from CoinDesk.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Grayscale has been in contact with both the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance since winning its court battle with the regulator on Aug. 29.
In the past month, Solana (SOL) gained a staggering 93% amid scaling improvements, while Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) grew 36% and 20% respectively.
While many within the industry are confident an approval will kickstart the next bull market, other analysts aren’t convinced that the rally has staying power.