As 'Uptober' comes to end, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls should be aware of crucial accumulation phase, Stock-to-Flow author warns
Pseudonymous cryptocurrency analyst who goes by PlanB (@100trillionUSD in X), a creator and proponent of the uber-bullish "Stock-to-Flow" model of the Bitcoin (BTC) price, foresees a crucially important period for BTC bulls coming on Nov. 1, 2023.
Bitcoin (BTC) close to "outperforming period," Stock-to-Flow author says
The last day of October is the start of the period that historically outperforms the "Buy and Hold" model for Bitcoin (BTC). These windows of opportunity open six months prior to halving events and close a year and a half post-halving. This trend was noticed by PlanB in his recent X thread.
Reminder: October closing price tomorrow is the start of the [halving minus 6 months - halving plus 18 months]-period that historically outperforms buy&hold. And that is the essence of the S2F model: that scarcity and thus halvings drive price.https://t.co/WiwIjN07ph pic.twitter.com/dM4wJVfAmZ— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 30, 2023
This estimation is set to yet again prove the accuracy of the "Stock-to-Flow" price theory. Per this narrative, Bitcoin's (BTC) price growth in the long term has been catalyzed by its surging scarcity as an asset. In turn, growing scarcity is rooted in periodic halving events that reduce the issuance of Bitcoins (BTC) by 50% every four years.
As covered by U.Today previously, the previous Btcoin (BTC) halving happened in May 2020, amid a general recession of the markets. However, 18 months after that (in November 2021), Bitcoin (BTC) logged its historic high over $69,000.
Some major crypto influencers are also certain of the effects of Bitcoin (BTC) halvings for crypto markets. For instance, Binance CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao recalled that "people were always asking why" after Bitcoin (BTC) printed yet another ATH after halvings.
The next Bitcoin (BTC) halving is set to happen on April 24, 2024. Rewards for all Bitcoin (BTC) miners will be reduced to 3.125 Bitcoins (BTC) per block.
Will 2024 Bitcoin (BTC) halving be different?
As a result, we will be able to check whether the forecast by PlanB is correct in October 2025.
Some of his followers are guessing whether the next rally will be different for Bitcoin (BTC). For instance, this time, Bitcoin (BTC) issuance only loses 3.125 BTC/block, which has a lower monetary effect than previously.
However, PlanB opines that even on the BTC/XAU chart that shows a correlation between the Bitcoin (BTC) and gold prices, the correlation will look the same.
At the same time, he recommended to evaluate the Bitcoin (BTC) market with a correlation of indicators, including technical analysis, on-chain processes and so on.