Greed

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) starts a new week with an uphill struggle to regain lost ground after a 15% BTC price dip.
After a weekend that decimated crypto, traders are licking their wounds — but Bitcoin is already bouncing back.
Sensitivity to geopolitics thus forms a key focus for the coming week, with commentators comparing recent events in the Middle East to the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.
So far, altcoins have borne the brunt of the snap market reaction to hostilities between Israel and Iran, with BTC/USD managing to preserve $60,000 support.
Leverage nonetheless saw a comprehensive flush, and even on Bitcoin, 30% of open interest disappeared in an instant.
Going forward, there is much to contend with — while volatility is already plenty visible, Bitcoin is just days away from its next block subsidy halving.
The stage is thus set for volatile conditions to continue as BTC price action becomes anything but boring.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the current state of play across Bitcoin and crypto markets in the weekly rundown of important BTC price triggers.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="bitcoin-bulls-bounce-back-after-flash-crash-to-61-000">Bitcoin bulls bounce back after flash crash to $61,000</h2>
It can be safely said that this weekend produced a crypto market nightmare unlike many seen before.
As news of fresh geopolitical instability in the Middle East emerged, crypto, as the only free-trading markets open 24/7, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-is-the-crypto-market-down-today">saw immediate losses</a>.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/f069b825-85e1-4943-894a-3708a18f5d0c.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
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Similar to events in Ukraine in early 2022, Bitcoin and altcoins sold off rapidly. BTC/USD saw lows of just above $61,000.
Altcoins fared much worse, some losing 50% of their value before joining BTC/USD in what is so far a slow grind back up. As Cointelegraph reported, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dominance-3-year-high-btc-price-altcoins">Bitcoin’s dominance over the combined crypto market</a> cap hit three-year highs last week.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/66aea227-9cf3-4857-8adf-e7b983fd727f.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Altcoin total market cap 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
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</figure>
While the extent of the moves caught some by surprise, popular analyst Matthew Hyland suggested that, in hindsight, the signs of a flash correction were already present.
“Overall BTC still basically consolidating at ATHs. ALTs punished but I think it was to rid the market of the over-leveraged and weaker hands,” he concluded at the end of a post on X.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/108fc4cd-9460-4f8d-ad1f-e9a7338c273e.png" alt="" title="">
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 Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1779645144657989714" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Matthew Hyland</a>
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Analyzing current order book data, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto eyed ongoing shifts in liquidity being placed and pulled on the largest exchange, Binance.
“Spot still trading at a premium- everything else still looking very healthy,” he summarized.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/7246ce31-9a7b-4e07-9f97-0762dd37b39a.png" alt="" title="">
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 BTC/USDT liquidity chart. Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1779726471424090580/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Credible Crypto</a>
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Data from monitoring resource <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">CoinGlass</a> covered the combined liquidity picture across exchanges, showing the biggest block of asks at $68,500 as of April 15.
“Bitcoin still holds above its previous cycle highs,” fellow trader Jelle meanwhile added, referring to monthly close levels. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Everything is going to be okay.”
</blockquote>
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/d81658c7-312d-4365-a655-22b8db347455.png" alt="" title="">
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 BTC/USD chart. Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1779749408550076429" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Jelle</a>
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At around $65,750, the latest weekly close on BTC/USD was the pair’s lowest since the beginning of March, per data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCGBP/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a>.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="middle-east-jitters-combine-with-fresh-fed-comments">Middle East jitters combine with fresh Fed comments</h2>
The coming week holds a typical cocktail of United States macroeconomic data and commentary from senior Federal Reserve officials — including Chair Jerome Powell.
While nothing out of the ordinary in itself, the atmosphere is compounded by events in the Middle East, potentially leaving already wary risk assets open to additional sensitivity.
“In just a few hours, we will see the market’s response to geopolitical tensions this weekend,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1779511984142069830" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">wrote</a> in part of its weekly diary dates entry on X, referring to the beginning of trading in Asia and on Wall Street.
Jobless claims form the key data print for the week; these are due on April 18, while Powell will speak on April 16.
Inflation remains an important consideration for traders, who have repeatedly priced out the odds of interest rate cuts coming sooner rather than later this year.
The latest <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">estimates</a> from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool see the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s July meeting at 43%, with September at 45%.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/3f1532c3-cb12-46d8-abc6-cf1841f3d11b.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
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“Given the market’s sensitivity to rates at the moment, any irrational dip on data that reprices the outlook for rates is a buy,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro <a href="https://twitter.com/tedtalksmacro/status/1778291360912875572" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">told</a> X subscribers in part of macro market coverage last week.
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Fiscal spending is the greater power here.”
</blockquote>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="halving-week-dawns-with-focus-on-price-volatility">Halving week dawns with focus on price volatility</h2>
The weekend’s market volatility has almost served to overshadow Bitcoin’s imminent block subsidy halving at the last minute.
With just four days to go, traders’ attention remains focused on price rather than the seminal network event, the countdown to which has,&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-community-begins-bitcoin-halving-countdown-as-milestone-date-nears">in fact, lasted many months</a>.
Miners are at the forefront of the changes, with their revenue streams being reshaped in an instant as “new” bitcoins per mined block drop by 50% to 3.125 BTC.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, research sees <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-miners-dump-5-billion-in-btc-after-halving-10x-research">miners upping selling pressure</a> around the event.
Nonetheless, the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows the BTC balance in known miner wallets staying mostly flat since the end of March.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/6f383373-0a53-4be1-9c81-779d3fd48bd6.png" alt="" title="">
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 BTC balance in miner wallets. Source: Glassnode
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Revenues, with fees included, meanwhile continue to circle familiar levels. Spikes in the current halving cycle are visible, most recently thanks to the Ordinals boom in late 2023.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/9b22f717-586b-45d0-89fb-22c466f69848.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin miner revenue. Source: Glassnode
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Cointelegraph has a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-2024">dedicated news and information resource</a> covering the major events around the block subsidy halving.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="hong-kong-reportedly-approves-spot-bitcoin-ether-etfs">Hong Kong reportedly approves spot Bitcoin, Ether ETFs</h2>
While it remains to be seen how the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will respond to the weekend’s volatility, good news starts the week elsewhere.
Regulators in Hong Kong have approved Bitcoin and Ether (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/ethereum-price">ETH</a>) ETFs for trading, reports say — something which is <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-hong-kong-bitcoin-etfs-halving-btc-price-rally">getting observers excited</a> for future Chinese participation.
“More ETFs, China has easier access to it through Hong Kong this way,” popular commentator WhalePanda <a href="https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1779756666935792091" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">wrote</a> in an X reaction. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Very bullish.”
</blockquote>
Operators including China Asset Management, Harvest Global Investments and Bosera Asset Management will be launching spot crypto products, according to the reports.
“China Asset Management (Hong Kong) has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset management services to investors,” part of a press release currently being shared on social media states. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “It now plans to issue ETF products that can invest in spot Bitcoin and spot Ethereum.”
</blockquote>
The move comes at a time when the U.S. ETFs are facing a <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-200m-outflow-btc-price-69k">broad slowdown in inflows</a> after a rapid acceleration in March accompanied the ascent to BTC price all-time highs.
The U.S. products nonetheless remain the most successful ETF launches in history, with the two largest offerings from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments <a href="https://farside.co.uk/?p=997" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">seeing</a> net inflows every day since their debut.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/49b8c455-c6ed-4de5-a54a-10dc8edc7e12.png" alt="" title="">
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 U.S. Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside
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<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="crypto-greed-still-reigns-supreme">Crypto “greed” still reigns supreme</h2>
In an admonishing signal to those hoping for a sustained crypto price recovery, sentiment remains firmly “greedy.”
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-bounce-gives-bnb-ton-vet-and-bgb-a-boost-will-it-last">Bitcoin price bounce gives BNB, TON, VET and BGB a boost — Will it last?</a>
<a href="https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">According</a> to the latest data from the classic sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, even the weekend wipeout failed to induce significant cold feet into investors’ mindsets.
Fear and greed reached 72/100, and while this marks its lowest in around 10 days, it is far from a capitulatory move.
At the time of writing on April 15, the Index is now once again rising, hitting 74/100 to near its “extreme greed” zone.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/49d2c3ea-166a-4129-81cc-3ed3e7c99f49.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
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In an X survey on April 15, WhalePanda showed the state of flux among market observers. Asked where BTC/USD might be by the halving, respondents were broadly split — while a small majority still envisaged a retaking of $70,000 by next weekend. 
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/dfd0d2e9-9e75-4f43-a54f-ae4673f7bde9.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: WhalePanda
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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