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<h2 id="money-supply-contracts-again-in-march">Money Supply contracts again in March</h2>



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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Money Supply contracts again in March. 📉<br><br>This is a massive economic warning. Money Supply contraction hasn&#39;t happened in 90 years.<br><br>Only other times it has happened we had Depression / Major Banking Crisis. <a href="https://t.co/eOvsyoWrFy" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/eOvsyoWrFy</a></p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650927931126849548?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1) Other periods of Money Supply Contraction other than 2023:<br><br>-Great Depression 1929<br>-Depression of 1921<br>-Panic of 1893<br>-1870s Banking Crisis<br><br>All previous situations had unemployment rate north of 10%. And massive bank failures. <a href="https://t.co/GAlXQUINKx" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/GAlXQUINKx</a></p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650928250426630156?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">2) What&#39;s amazing to me is how NO ONE is paying attention to this.<br><br>Fed is sucking money out of the system through QT. Just while banks are at beginning of a credit crunch.<br><br>And stock/real estate investors are still &quot;risk on&quot;. Insane.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650931701911003155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">3) Look at First Republic&#39;s earnings report to see how this money supply contraction works in practice.<br><br>First Republic&#39;s deposits were down -36% YoY. 📉<br><br>But their loans were still up +23% YoY. 📈<br><br>That&#39;s not sustainable. <a href="https://t.co/oqWs7UuYm7" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/oqWs7UuYm7</a></p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650932276589363200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">4) So now First Republic is having to severely CUT BACK it&#39;s loan portfolio.<br><br>To bring their balance sheet back into balance to account for lower deposits.<br><br>Which means fewer available mortgages, business loans, and overall money in economy. <a href="https://t.co/LxMqsvyISB" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/LxMqsvyISB</a></p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650933054964224001?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5) What&#39;s so problematic about this money supply contraction is that inflation is STILL an issue.<br><br>So businesses will have less access to capital just as they need it most to pay for expenses and payroll expansion. <br><br>Yikes. That&#39;s a recipe for mass bankruptcies and layoffs.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650933736970526743?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">6) Especially because of the massive Corporate Debt Bubble that has been fueling the economy for the last 10 years.<br><br>$20 Trillion in Corporate/Business Debt at end of 2022.<br><br>Double the level in 2008. <a href="https://t.co/SBqgcrp681" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/SBqgcrp681</a></p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650934498983288850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">7) What happens to all those levered Corporations / Businesses when money supply contracts?<br><br>Doesn&#39;t take a rocket scientist to figure it out. <br><br>Big layoffs. And big shutdowns.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650934927444025386?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">8) But most people are writing off these possibilities.<br><br>Simply because &quot;they haven&#39;t happened yet&quot;.<br><br>Which I understand to some degree. &quot;Recession&quot; has been discussed for a year. And it hasn&#39;t gotten real yet.<br><br>But that doesn&#39;t mean it won&#39;t.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650935306625884168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">9) The ignorance of the Fed to these realities is shocking.<br><br>They rarely, if at all, discuss money supply. Just interest rates.<br><br>But I suspect that will change over the next 3-6 months. Because if money supply keeps contracting, there will be big problems.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650935679629574144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">10) Of course &#8211; I don&#39;t have a crystal ball. Just evidence from history about what happens to economy when money supply contracts.<br><br>Maybe I&#39;m wrong and banks will get aggressive with lending again in 2023. <br><br>And Fed will pivot earlier than expected, thereby &quot;saving the day&quot;.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650935913453592590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">11) But based on current chess board, it seems like Fed is determined to hike/tighten until inflation is down to 2%.<br><br>Just as banks are getting scared. And cutting back on lending. <br><br>Tough combo for a debt-bubble economy to handle.</p>&mdash; Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1650936211463086095?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<h2 id="what-you-should-know-about-coinbase-s-suits-against-sec">What you should know about Coinbase’s Suits against SEC</h2>



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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1/  Here&#39;s what you should know about the <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Coinbase</a> suit against the SEC. <br><br>This will move fast&#8211;unlike the <a href="https://twitter.com/Ripple?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Ripple</a> case.<br><br>This case begins in the appellate court, not the trial court.<br><br>There will be no discovery (depositions and document exchange), just briefing and a hearing.</p>&mdash; MetaLawMan (@MetaLawMan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1650847807480135681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">2/  <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Coinbase</a> has an All-Star legal team led by Eugene Scalia&#8211;former Sec. of Labor and son of deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.<br><br>Scalia has experience defeating government agencies, including the SEC, in court.<br><br>The Petition filed yesterday is quite persuasive.</p>&mdash; MetaLawMan (@MetaLawMan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1650847808780419072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">3/  Coinbase is seeking a Writ of Mandamus which is a Court order compelling the SEC to do its job and announce a decision on Coinbase&#39;s request for rule-making.<br><br>This action does not necessarily affect the SEC&#39;s timing for suing <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Coinbase</a> as it has threatened to do.</p>&mdash; MetaLawMan (@MetaLawMan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1650847810009309187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">4/  I expect major industry players to pile in with amicus briefs supporting <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Coinbase</a>&#39;s position.<br><br>We might also see the House Financial Services Committee, or individual members, come in with briefs in support of <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Coinbase</a>.</p>&mdash; MetaLawMan (@MetaLawMan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1650847811968049153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5/  The SEC Commissioners will have to approve any response to Coinbase&#39;s action.<br><br>There&#39;s a tiny chance the SEC will blink and agree to engage in rule-making.<br><br>If just one Commissioner withdraws their support for <a href="https://twitter.com/GaryGensler?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@GaryGensler</a>&#39;s &quot;regulation-by-enforcement&quot; strategy, he&#39;s done.</p>&mdash; MetaLawMan (@MetaLawMan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1650847813243109376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">6/  While Coinbase&#39;s action does not directly affect pending SEC cases against <a href="https://twitter.com/Ripple?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Ripple</a>/ <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24XRP&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">$XRP</a>, Bittrex and others,<br><br>It does a great job of shining a spotlight on the SEC&#39;s contradictory positions about of its authority to regulate digital assets.<br><br>Other judges will take note.</p>&mdash; MetaLawMan (@MetaLawMan) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan/status/1650847814430126080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Today, we filed a narrow action in the U.S. Circuit Court to compel the SEC to respond “yes or no” to a rulemaking petition we filed with them last July asking them to provide regulatory guidance for the crypto industry. 1/4 <a href="https://t.co/rlsS1DIFfl" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://t.co/rlsS1DIFfl</a></p>&mdash; paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) <a href="https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1650655451720318976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The SEC is required by law to respond to petitions “within a reasonable time,” but they have not yet responded to our petition from last July, which is why we filed our action in court today. 2/4</p>&mdash; paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) <a href="https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1650655460230582272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It&#39;s obvious that there’s a lack of clarity among our regulators regarding crypto, as even the chair of the SEC has declined to say which crypto assets are securities. 3/4 <a href="https://t.co/6HZak3dzk9" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://t.co/6HZak3dzk9</a></p>&mdash; paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) <a href="https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1650655469101522949?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The crypto industry, and its users need clear laws and rules to follow that are built for a new technology. Enforcement actions based in inapplicable securities law aren’t the answer. 4/4</p>&mdash; paulgrewal.eth (@iampaulgrewal) <a href="https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1650655478014410753?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">April 25, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Best Twitter threads of the day – April 25th

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