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CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonality, but an increase in demand is required for the price of BTC to reach $100,000 in Q4.
Generally, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/what-is-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide-to-the-worlds-first-cryptocurrency" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin</a> has performed well in October when in a bull cycle, particularly in a halving year like 2024 and that period of positive seasonality is typically maintained throughout the fourth quarter of the year.
In its weekly report <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/research/66fc33c29ffdb0697f09975e-01-October-2024-Upcoming-Rally-Bitcoin-Enters-Positive-Seasonality-Period-But-De" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">published</a> on Oct. 2, the market intelligence firm explained that in previous <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin halving</a> years, 2012, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) price has increased by 9%, 59% and 171%, respectively.
“Bitcoin’s performance so far in 2024 has been similar to 2016 and 2020 up to September,” CryptoQuant analysts added.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that Bitcoin remained in the BULL (orange area) phase between March and August.&nbsp;
However, the graph below shows that the price has been trading in a BEAR phase for three weeks between August and September and now enters the last quarter sealed “between the BULL and BEAR phases.”
In comparison, Bitcoin entered Q4 in 2020 in a clear bull phase, making this year’s entry into the last quarter relatively weak.&nbsp;
<figure><img alt="$100K Bitcoin price depends on 'increasing demand' and ‘favorable seasonality’ — CryptoQuant" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01924e48-09b3-7212-bdd6-1596db0cde00">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, 2020 vs. 2024. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The report also highlights that Bitcoin’s apparent demand seems to have stopped declining, although it needs to grow faster to sustain higher prices in Q4.
The chart below reveals that Bitcoin’s apparent demand growth has stalled since July, oscillating between -23,000 and +69,000 BTC on a monthly basis. In comparison, Bitcoin’s apparent demand grew by as much as 496,000 BTC in April, when the price was hovering around $70,000.
<blockquote>
 “It seems that demand has a lot of room to grow in Q4.”Bitcoin apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant
</blockquote>
CryptoQuant analysts say that institutional demand through US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is key for further <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-is-bitcoin-price-down-today" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC price</a> growth. They note that these investment products shifted from net selling of 5,000 BTC to net buying of 7,000 BTC between Sept. 2 and Sept. 30.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “If ETF demand continues to accelerate it can have the effect of propel prices up in the last quarter of 2024”
</blockquote>
<figure><img alt="$100K Bitcoin price depends on 'increasing demand' and ‘favorable seasonality’ — CryptoQuant" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01924e49-71a5-7f1b-976d-61c5b49f653f">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Daily change of BTC holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
According to data from SoSoValue, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/tags/bitcoin-etf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">spot Bitcoin ETFs</a> saw $1.8 billion in net inflows between Sept. 13 and Sept. 30, suggesting increased institutional demand for these investment products in anticipation of higher BTC prices in Q4.&nbsp;
<figure><img alt="$100K Bitcoin price depends on 'increasing demand' and ‘favorable seasonality’ — CryptoQuant" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01924e49-d4ed-70b0-9028-427a99aa059d">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Total spot Bitcoin ETF netflow. Source: SoSoValue
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Meanwhile, London-based asset manager CoinShares <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://blog.coinshares.com/volume-202-digital-asset-fund-flows-weekly-report-e00fa60eac86" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">said</a> that the “approval of options for certain US-based investment products likely boosted sentiment” resulting in more than <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/investors-flock-to-bitcoin-investment-products-following-btc-recovery-to-66-k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">$1 billion in inflows</a> into Bitcoin investment products between Sept. 23 and Sept. 27.&nbsp;
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/5-keywords-traders-should-monitor-that-signal-fomo-fud" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Has the crypto market bottomed? Look out for these 5 keywords</a>
According to CryptoQuant, if demand continues to grow, Bitcoin could target between $85,000 and $100,000 by the end of December.
<blockquote>
 “On-chain data valuation metrics suggest Bitcoin could be targeting $85K-$100K in Q4 in the context of recovering demand and positive seasonality.“
</blockquote>
<figure><img alt="$100K Bitcoin price depends on 'increasing demand' and ‘favorable seasonality’ — CryptoQuant" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/01924e4a-53e0-769c-8e0b-13ec06c055dd">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin trader onchain realized price bands. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Market participants now turn their attention to the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and how <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-traders-54k-btc-price-lower-middle-east-tensions" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin price reacts</a>. They will also focus on the health of the US job market and the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate cuts in 2024 following an aggressive <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/https-www-cnbc-com-2024-09-18-fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-september-interest-rate-cut-html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">50 basis point cut</a> on Sept. 18.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

$100K Bitcoin price depends on 'increasing demand' and ‘favorable seasonality’ — CryptoQuant

Cointelegraph

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