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BTC Demand Slowdown Signals Bear Market Entry, Says CryptoQuant

$BTC has entered a bear market cycle as demand growth slowed significantly since October 2025, according to analysts at crypto market analysis platform CryptoQuant. The analytics firm cited multiple factors, including #ETF outflows, contracting institutional demand, declining funding rates, and price falling below key technical support levels, as evidence of the cyclical shift.

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno indicated $BTC could reach $70,000 within three to six months, with a deeper decline to $56,000 possible in the second half of 2026 if the downtrend continues. The bear market effectively began around mid-November following the largest liquidation event in crypto history on Oct. 10, according to Moreno.

Investor demand for $BTC came in three waves during the current #market cycle, with the first following the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. in January 2024. The second wave followed the 2024 U.S. presidential election results, and the third was driven by a #Bitcoin treasury company bubble, according to CryptoQuant's analysis.

Demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025, indicating that most of this cycle's incremental demand has already been realized and removing a key pillar of price support. U.S. spot #BitcoinETFs turned into net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, with combined holdings declining by roughly 24,000 $BTC or around $2.12 billion, marking a sharp reversal from the same period in 2024 when ETFs were strong net buyers.

Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 $BTC, a cohort that includes ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, are growing below trend. CryptoQuant stated this weakening mirrors demand deterioration seen toward the end of 2021 ahead of the 2022 #bear market, with this group representing most of Bitcoin's demand growth during the current cycle.