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Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) now has a shot at hitting $180,000 if a new bull signal repeats historical gains.
In a <a href="https://twitter.com/CalebFranzen/status/1763547175819133357" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">post</a> on X on March 1, Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, suggested that BTC price returns could hit 260% from current levels this cycle.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="analyst-eyes-ultra-rare-williams-r-oscillator-signal">Analyst eyes ultra rare Williams%R Oscillator signal</h2>
Bitcoin has added more than 43% in February alone, but a long-term BTC price metric is already calling for much higher levels.
Analyzing the Williams%R Oscillator on three-year timeframes, Franzen revealed a rare bull signal flashing for only the fourth time ever.
“Bitcoin just completed the highest monthly close since Oct. ’21, but it gets even better &amp; more bullish... The 36-month Williams%R Oscillator just closed above the overbought level for the 4th time in history,” he summarized.
The Williams%R Oscillator is used to gauge the strength of BTC price trends. As Cointelegraph reported, Franzen showed that the tool was essential in charting the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-metric-which-cued-biggest-bitcoin-bull-runs-brakes-out-at-23k">start of Bitcoin’s recovery</a> from the 2022 bear market lows.
While it was 12-month timeframes in play then, now, an even rarer occurrence is back — the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator is headed into “overbought” territory above -20.
“I say it all the time &amp; I’ll continue to repeat it: overbought signals are incredibly bullish and should be viewed as momentum signals, not signals to fade,” Franzen continued.
Prior signals appeared in 2013, 2016 and 2020 — all years marking the early innings of a Bitcoin bull market.
While the returns have decreased each cycle — from 1,900% in 2013 to 260% in 2020 — even matching the latter would produce a $180,000 BTC price.
Franzen nonetheless acknowledged that even these unusual events should not be treated as a guarantee of future performance.
“The same analysis that I shared for the 12M and 24M Williams%R signals have worked perfectly; however, this study guarantees nothing. It simply tells us how market participants have behaved in the past when investor behavior was similar from a statistical perspective,” he explained. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “This study is unequivocally bullish, but we should view it simply as improving bullish probabilities rather than being outright bullish from a binary perspective.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/267b08b4-0bd8-4f00-b697-a010f2b0fdc6.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD chart with 36-month&nbsp;Williams%R Oscillator. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="rsi-extends-bullish-trend-to-monthly-timeframes">RSI extends bullish trend to monthly timeframes</h2>
Another indicator that tends to spend the steepest parts of bull markets at “overbought” levels is the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-20k-monthly-candle-biggest-usd">Bitcoin just printed a $20K monthly candle — Its biggest ever in USD</a>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/ad112b71-6b93-4198-9327-4dc8f91be7f0.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
On daily timeframes, this is firmly overbought, briefly passing 80/100 on Feb. 28, data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCGBP/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a> confirms.
In late December, daily RSI <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/these-3-bitcoin-metrics-fresh-btc-price-move-imminent">executed a form of reset</a>, which preceded Bitcoin’s initial push higher into the launch of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the United States.
What’s more, monthly timeframes look even more optimistic, with the RSI only now entering the overbought zone.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/ccdcfd25-c708-4c70-8ff3-7e1235cfbed9.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-month chart with RSI. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin metric repeats bull move that saw up to 1,900% BTC price gains

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Cointelegraph

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