Frost

April

Cosmos

Time

James

Cosmos ($ATOM) is the coin that powers the entire Cosmos ecosystem. It consists of a variety of projects from different spheres such as finance, <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/learn/crypto-basics/what-is-a-dex" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">decentralized exchanges (DEX)</a>, and cloud computing. The earliest price data I can find for $ATOM is from <a href="https://www.kraken.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Kraken</a>, starting in April 2019. Using this price data, the remainder of the article represents my best efforts to apply <a href="https://youtu.be/a5tI8CWiRow?si=178zZgmqRFk2wwbH" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Elliott Wave Theory</a> (EWT) to isolate its placement in market structures. I will assume that you have some knowledge of EWT to understand the terms, but I have also included a small glossary at the bottom for reference.
<h2 id="ewt-summary">EWT Summary</h2> <img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://i0.wp.com/s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/j/jIKwljmV.png?ssl=1" alt="TradingView Chart" loading="lazy" data-recalc-dims="1"> A link to the raw image since it might be hard to see all the details: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/jIKwljmV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/x/jIKwljmV</a>. Cycle Wave 0 – Mar 2020 – $1.1151 Primary Wave 1 – $2.4794 Primary Wave 2 – $1.8482 (38.2% LFR) Primary Wave 3 – $32.2433 (3.618 LFE) Primary Wave 4 – $7.872 (50% LFR) Primary Wave 5 – $44.7383 (1.236 LFE) Cycle Wave 1 – Sep 2021 – $44.7383 Primary Wave A – $20.2221 (Contracting, Leading Diagonal) Primary Wave B – $33.2641 (Contracting Triangle) Primary Wave C – $5.5409 (Impulse) Cycle Wave 2 – Jun 2022 – $5.5409 (50% LFR) Primary Wave 1 – ONGOING Primary Wave 2 – TBA Primary Wave 3 – TBA Primary Wave 4 – TBA Primary Wave 5 – TBA Cycle Wave 3 – ONGOING 
<h2 id="exploring-further">Exploring Further</h2>
EWT uses ratios to create price targets. The main target being the 1.618 LFE, however there are the minimum, lower, and much higher LFE’s to watch out for. For $ATOM we first need to find the beta multiple to scale the targets off of. This is accomplished by taking Wave 1 and dividing it by Wave 0. In this case for the Cycle Wave Degree it’s approximately 40.12. Then we raise this multiple to various numbers defined by EWT to create a table of targets. In order below are the LFE Price Targets:
0.618 – $54.26
1 – $222.3
1.236 – $531.3
1.618 – $2,176.84 Therefore, if we expect $ATOM to be a Diagonal then $54.26 – $222.3 is the preferred price box. 
If we are looking for the typical price box then it’s: $531.3 – $2,176.84.
However, due to the nature of the next estimated bull run only the Intermediate Degree Wave 3 of the Cycle Wave 3 should play out. The next bull run is estimated by many traders and institutions to peak around late 2024 to early 2026. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314417628_Benner_Cycles_the_956_year_grid" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Benner Cycle Theory</a> also puts a market peak around 2026. You can see the full layout for Benner’s Cycle Theory <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lessons-from-benners-prophecies-how-historical-cycles-radhakrishnan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">here</a>. As such, the Intermediate Wave 1 and 2 are: $17.2656 and $6.17. The beta multiple for the Intermediate Degree is approximately 3.116. Then as we did for the Cycle Wave Degree the relevant typical price box is: $25.14 – $38.81. The higher price boxes are all above the ATH for $ATOM. The current price action for $ATOM is overwhelmingly bullish, so the higher price boxes are definitely a possibility.
<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter" src="https://i0.wp.com/s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/FQhUSWST.png?ssl=1" alt="TradingView Chart" loading="lazy" data-recalc-dims="1"> A link to the raw image since it might be hard to see all the details: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQhUSWST" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQhUSWST.</a>
<h2 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h2>
Given the next bull run peak for crypto is likely late 2024 to early 2026 the relevant LFEs to use for $ATOM are at the Intermediate Wave Degree . The typical price targets for the Intermediate Degree Wave 3 are $25.14 – $38.81. The price as I write is $11.3 so the next peak is a rough 2 to 3.5x from here. If the Wave 3 is heavily extended and possibly goes to the 2.618 or 3.618 LFE then a new ATH is possible. That would mean a minimum of a 4x from here to the next peak. The Primary Wave 1 of Cycle Wave 3 is likely due in late 2026 to 2030 using Fibonacci Time Ratios.
<h2 id="glossary">Glossary</h2>
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT)
“A theory in technical analysis that attributes wave-like price patterns, identified at various scales, to trader psychology and investor sentiment.”
Source: “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/elliottwavetheory.asp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Elliott Wave Theory: What It Is and How to Use It</a>” by James Chen (2023)
Logarithmic Fibonacci Retracement (LFR)
A measured correction at certain Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Logarithmic Fibonacci Extensions (LFE)
A measured rally at certain Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
<h2 id="supplemental-reading">Supplemental Reading</h2>
“<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-Principle-Market-Behavior/dp/1616041374/ref=sr_1_4?crid=1MOW70UAPTLDM&amp;keywords=elliott+wave+principle&amp;qid=1703183859&amp;sprefix=elliott+wave%2Caps%2C104&amp;sr=8-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Elliott Wave Principle – Key To Market Behavior</a>” by Frost &amp; Prechter (2022)
“<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Visual-Guide-Elliott-Wave-Trading/dp/1118445600/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1E8N6ULHFADTR&amp;keywords=visual+guide+to+elliott+wave+trading&amp;qid=1703183901&amp;s=books&amp;sprefix=visual+guide+to+ell%2Cstripbooks%2C109&amp;sr=1-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading</a>” by Gorman &amp; Kennedy (2013)
“<a href="https://cdpub.org/s/How-to-Calculate-Logarithmic-Retracements-and-Extensions.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">How to Calculate Logarithmic Retracements and Extensions</a>” by C. D. Chester (2023)

Cosmos (ATOM) Elliott Wave Summary (2019 – 2023)

Tabla de contenidos

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