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<p>The release of Pavel Durov has sparked mixed reactions in the crypto community. Many firmly believed that the CEO of Telegram would remain in prison in France for a long time. However, against all odds, Durov was released on bail on August 28th, overturning the predictions of many bettors on Polymarket, a crypto betting platform, who saw their hopes of profits vanish.</p> 
<h2 id="h-telegram-une-liberation-precoce-qui-deroute-les-parieurs">Telegram: An early release that confounds bettors</h2> 
<p><a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-toncoin-collapses-by-20-after-durovs-arrest-2/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Toncoin fell by 20% after Durov’s arrest</a>, unfortunate! But also note that the early release of Pavel Durov caught many bettors on Polymarket, a very popular crypto prediction platform, off guard.</p>
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<p><strong>These bettors thought that the French authorities would extend the detention of the Telegram CEO</strong>, mainly due to his immense fortune and his multiple nationalities, including that of the United Arab Emirates, a country that does not extradite its citizens.</p> 
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<p>However, <strong>on August 28th, Durov regained his freedom</strong> after posting a <strong>bail of 5 million euros</strong>. This turn of events cost those who were betting on continued detention dearly, making them <strong><a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/29/polymarket-bettors-miss-out-on-270k-due-to-pavel-durovs-early-release/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">lose a total of $270,000</a></strong>.</p> 
<p>In the crypto world, where every move by Durov is scrutinized, this news had the effect of a bombshell. A certain <strong>“Champ”, a seasoned bettor</strong>, however, anticipated this outcome and <strong>pocketed the tidy sum of $56,638 by betting on the August release</strong>, proving that sometimes, instinct trumps caution.</p> 
<h2 id="h-crypto-une-industrie-bousculee-par-la-volatilite-des-marches-de-predictions">Crypto: An industry shaken by the volatility of prediction markets</h2> 
<p>The Durov affair highlighted the <strong>risks associated with betting on the crypto market</strong>, where volatility reigns supreme. On Polymarket, <strong>the probabilities of an August release were estimated at only 30%</strong> a few days before the announcement.&nbsp;</p> 
<p>However, these odds climbed to 50% in the hours leading up to the release, catching many bettors off guard. The majority had bet on <strong>prolonged detention</strong>, based on probabilities oscillating <strong>between 75% and 90% for a release after September</strong>.</p> 
<p>This case well illustrates the dangers of prediction markets in the world of crypto, where even the safest bets can collapse in the blink of an eye. Note that <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-crisis-toncoin-and-ether-lead-to-market-collapse/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Toncoin and Ethereum have led to a market crash</a>, analysts specify.</p>  
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  <script type="text/javascript" src="https://s3.tradingview.com/external-embedding/embed-widget-mini-symbol-overview.js" async>{"symbol":"BINANCE:TONUSDT.P","width":350,"height":220,"isTransparent":false,"autosize":false,"dateRange":"12M","trendLineColor":"rgba(253,64,19,1)","underLineColor":"rgba(253,64,19,0.6)","underLineBottomColor":"rgba(253,64,19,0)","locale":"en","largeChartUrl":false,"colorTheme":"dark"}</script> 
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  <script type="text/javascript" src="https://s3.tradingview.com/external-embedding/embed-widget-mini-symbol-overview.js" async>{"symbol":"BINANCE:TONUSDT.P","width":350,"height":220,"isTransparent":false,"autosize":false,"dateRange":"12M","trendLineColor":"rgba(253,64,19,1)","underLineColor":"rgba(253,64,19,0.6)","underLineBottomColor":"rgba(253,64,19,0)","locale":"en","largeChartUrl":false,"colorTheme":"light"}</script> 
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  <a href="https://fr.tradingview.com/symbols/TONUSDT.P/?exchange=BINANCE" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><span class="text-primary-color">TONUSDT.P chart</span></a> by TradingView
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<p>Meanwhile, a contract on Polymarket estimated <strong>only a 6% likelihood that Durov would leave France before mid-September</strong>, showing that despite the uncertainties, confidence in adhering to the release conditions remains relatively high.</p> 
<p>Pavel Durov, although released on bail, could still face <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-why-is-pavel-durov-facing-up-to-20-years-in-prison/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a sentence of up to 20 years in prison</a>, according to specialists.</p>
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Crypto: $270,000 Lost On Polymarket Due To Durov’s Exit

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