Worldcoin (WLD) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. User Growth vs. Token Unlocks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Worldcoin’s active addresses surged 170% YoY to 1 million, with 500K new users since May 2025. However, only 22.7% of its 10B token supply is circulating. After 15 years, governance could enable 1.5% annual inflation. Recent whale accumulation (e.g., 18.2M WLD withdrawn from Binance) suggests strategic positioning ahead of potential demand spikes.

What this means: Near-term price upside could emerge if user growth outpaces token unlocks, but long-term dilution risks loom. The $1.2B market cap hinges on balancing adoption with controlled supply expansion.

2. Biometric Backlash (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Regulatory actions in Thailand, Kenya, and Spain target Worldcoin’s iris-scanning Orb over privacy concerns. A September 2025 Thai raid froze operations, mirroring earlier suspensions. While the project claims compliance in 45+ countries, 16% of its documentation references “regulatory risks.”

What this means: Operational restrictions in key markets could slow user acquisition and dampen institutional interest. A worst-case ban in a major economy (e.g., EU) might trigger a 30-50% price drop, as seen during past enforcement actions.

3. Market Sentiment Shift (Neutral Impact)

Overview: WLD’s 30-day correlation with Bitcoin is 0.84, but the broader altcoin market faces headwinds: total crypto turnover fell 42% MoM, and the Altcoin Season Index sits at 31/100. Technicals show WLD below its 30-day SMA ($0.8665), with RSI 44.7 signaling neutral momentum.

What this means: A Bitcoin rally above $100K could lift WLD toward $1.20 resistance, but sustained fear sentiment (CMC Fear & Greed: 24/100) may prolong consolidation below $0.90.

Conclusion

Worldcoin’s price trajectory hinges on its ability to scale adoption faster than token inflation while navigating a regulatory minefield. Watch the weekly active user count – a drop below 60K could signal demand erosion. Can WLD’s identity protocol outpace its geopolitical risks?