Renzo (REZ) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Supply Dynamics: Buybacks vs. Unlocks (Mixed Impact)

Overview: Renzo executes monthly token burns (e.g., 114M REZ burned in November 2025) and uses up to 100% of protocol revenue for buybacks under Proposal RP-6. However, a 12.16% token unlock ($4.11M) occurred in August 2025, with additional unlocks scheduled through 2026.
What this means: Burns and buybacks could counter inflation, but large unlocks risk dilution. REZ’s price fell 59% in 60 days post-unlock, highlighting sensitivity to supply shocks. Monitor the burn tracker and unlock schedules.

2. EigenLayer Growth & Competition (Bullish)

Overview: Renzo’s $1B+ TVL in ezETH hinges on EigenLayer’s adoption. EigenLayer’s TVL surged to $35B in 2025, but rivals like Ether.fi ($2.8B TVL) and Puffer Finance ($1.26B TVL) pressure Renzo’s market share.
What this means: EigenLayer’s expansion into Actively Validated Services (AVSs) could boost Renzo’s fees and REZ demand. However, sector crowding may compress margins – Renzo’s 15–45% APY trails Gearbox’s 150% leveraged yields.

3. Regulatory & Technical Risks (Bearish)

Overview: Renzo’s Flow Vaults face scrutiny under MiCA regulations in Europe. Meanwhile, ezETH depegged by 8% during March 2025 withdrawal congestion, reflecting liquidity risks.
What this means: Regulatory clarity could enable institutional inflows, but punitive rules might restrict operations. Technically, REZ trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.00636), with RSI 14 at 34.56 signaling weak momentum.

Conclusion

Renzo’s price will likely hinge on EigenLayer’s trajectory and its ability to balance supply shocks with institutional adoption. While buybacks and restaking demand offer upside, unlocks and regulatory hurdles pose persistent risks. Can Renzo’s compliance tools outpace competitors’ yield innovations as the altcoin market stagnates? Watch December’s burn data and ETH restaking growth.