Fuel Network (FUEL) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Mainnet Development & Partnerships (Bullish)

Overview: Fuel’s Beta-4 testnet introduced parallel transaction execution, EigenDA integration for data availability (5K → 20K TPS potential), and a StorkOracle partnership for on-chain price feeds. These upgrades aim to position Fuel as a high-throughput Ethereum L2 competitor.

What this means: Improved scalability (150K TPS roadmap) and DeFi tooling could attract developers, increasing network utility. Historical L2 adoption cycles (e.g., Optimism’s 2023 surge post-Bedrock) suggest credible tech milestones often precede price rallies.

2. Token Unlocks & Staking Dynamics (Bearish)

Overview: 4% of FUEL’s supply (≈264M tokens) unlocked December 4, 2025, continuing a monthly vesting schedule. Meanwhile, Flex Staking on Bitvavo offers 3.8% APY – below sector averages like NEAR’s 8.4%.

What this means: Unlocks expand circulating supply by 4% overnight, historically correlating with -6% to -12% price dips (see June 2025’s -8.6% post-unlock). Low staking yields may discourage long-term holding, exacerbating sell pressure.

3. Market Sentiment & Liquidity (Mixed)

Overview: FUEL’s RSI-7D sits at 14.17 (oversold), while derivatives open interest fell -13.37% MoM. However, Binance Alpha’s June 2025 airdrop drove 102% volume spikes temporarily.

What this means: Oversold conditions could invite short-term traders, but declining open interest signals fading institutional interest. Price recovery hinges on spot buying outpacing unlock-related selling – a scenario last seen during August’s Layerswap integration (+9% in 48h).

Conclusion

FUEL’s trajectory depends on whether ecosystem growth outpaces dilution from unlocks. The shift to EigenDA and new DEXs like Mira Protocol could reignite momentum, but Bitcoin’s 58.5% dominance and “Fear” sentiment (CMC index: 24/100) create macro headwinds. Watch the December 4 unlock’s on-chain flow – sustained accumulation by whales (10K+ FUEL wallets) would signal conviction in Fuel’s 2026 roadmap.