Ethereum Classic (ETC) Price Prediction

Deep Dive

1. Olympia Upgrade & Treasury (Bullish Impact)

Overview: The Olympia Upgrade, targeting late 2026, introduces EIP-1559 fee burns (redirecting 80% of base fees to a decentralized treasury) and on-chain governance. Testnet deployment begins Q1 2026.

What this means: Burning transaction fees could reduce ETC’s annual supply growth by ~1.5% (ECIP-1111), creating scarcity. The DAO structure may attract developers by funding ecosystem projects transparently – historically, transparent treasuries correlate with 20-40% price boosts in projects like Zcash and Decred.

2. Proof-of-Work Positioning (Mixed Impact)

Overview: ETC remains one of few major PoW smart contract chains after Ethereum’s Merge. BITMAIN/ANTPOOL pledged $10M for ecosystem grants (Crypt0_DeFi), but daily active addresses stagnate at ~15K (vs. Ethereum’s 400K+).

What this means: PoW provides censorship resistance valued in regions like Hong Kong (adopting pro-Web3 laws), but energy costs (~62 kWh per ETC transaction) deter ESG-conscious institutions. Without L2 scaling, ETC risks becoming a “store-of-work” relic rather than a DeFi player.

3. Macro Sentiment & BTC Dominance (Bearish Impact)

Overview: The crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 21/100 (“Extreme Fear”), while BTC dominance holds at 58.7% – both historically negative for mid-cap alts like ETC.

What this means: In risk-off environments, ETC’s 90-day correlation with BTC strengthens to 0.87 (per CoinMetrics), making it vulnerable to BTC sell-offs. However, Grayscale’s ETCG trust trades at a 32% discount to NAV, suggesting institutional apathy that could reverse if ETF flows improve.

Conclusion

ETC’s 2026 upgrade could reignite its value proposition, but success hinges on executing amid shrinking PoW relevance and risk-averse markets. Watch the $12.70 Fibonacci support – a sustained break below might signal miner capitulation, while holding could set the stage for a DAO-driven rally. Does ETC’s immutability-focused community have the momentum to outlast market cycles?