Bitcoin hits a new all-time-high, finally. One small tick for the price, one giant leap for the crypto market.
Before Christmas, we witness a new history again.
On EST 8:42:11, Dec. 16, 2020, Bitcoin went over the cliff of $20,000, finally. One small tick for the price, one giant leap for the crypto market.
The new year is coming, praying for the future? We are in the future.
Merry Christmas and Hallelujah. Enjoy your vacation and our review.
Bitcoin Stands Above the New Peak
Before that moment, Bitcoin’s price and the trading volume kept comparatively flat, around $19,000 and $3 billion per day respectively until Dec. 16. However, even though Bitcoin had amassed enough power stealthily, investors thought that 2020 will end with a flat rhythm.
From Dec. 16, the price of Bitcoin rose quickly and broke through $20,000 on 8:42 EST, Dec. 16 2020. The market seethes. Bitcoin’s daily trading volume jumps to $10 billion, which is the largest in the last 30 days. The price also does not stop its step. As of 9pm on Dec. 17, Bitcoin’s price once hit $23,652 and has kept above the $20,000 line for more than 40 hours.
Who Is the First?
As Bitcoin’s price soared up to all-time high, TokenInsight analyzed the six minutes of trading data around that breaking point from five major exchanges — Binance, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Huobi and OKEx — and we found something interesting.
What Happened During the All-Time High Moment?
The following figure shows the comparison of the number of transactions on various exchanges within six minutes before and after Bitcoin broke $20,000.
Transactions are concentrated on small size orders less than one Bitcoin. Among the five exchanges, 132,885 small transactions (orders less than one Bitcoin) happened in total during those six minutes, accounting for nearly 98% of all transactions.
Huobi and Binance contributed the most, accounting for 65,096 and 38,963 respectively. Huobi has 64,022 small transactions. OKEx has the highest proportion of small transactions, reaching 98.54% of its total. OKEx, Huobi and Binance account for a significantly higher percentage of small transactions than Bitfinex and Coinbase.
Meanwhile, large transactions occurred quite often on Bitfinex, reaching 164 in total, while OKEx only has six trades, —but the largest order appears in OKEx is a 14.93 Bitcoin buying order, dealing with $19,900.
Bid Orders 3X Surpass the Ask Orders in Large Transactions
Bitcoin buying demand far exceeds selling demand. Among the executed orders, the quantity of the bid orders is 1.41 times of the ask orders. The transaction volume of the bid orders is 1.82 times higher than the volume of the ask orders.
At the same time, the larger the volume, the stronger the demand for bid orders. In large transactions greater than five Bitcoin, the number and the transaction volume of bid orders are as high as 275 and 2,781 Bitcoin, respectively. The number and the transaction volume of ask orders are 89 and 893 Bitcoin.
Ethereum Keeps Tepid
ETH’s weekly performance is not shining like BTC either, and the trading volume of ETH’s spot and perpetual are just half of BTC’s volume approximately. Generally speaking, the fluctuation of ETH is more than BTC, but it is lower than BTC this week. When we think about the high correlation between them, this condition seems abnormal.
What’s the future trend of the crypto market? Maybe the options markets’ performance can reveal some signs.
Information From Futures, Options From Investors
Futures and options are one kind of derivatives which imply future information, including investors’ thoughts for the futures markets, for both futures and options are executed someday after the buying day. Investors often buy futures and call options when they feel optimistic, and they will sell futures and buy put options when they have a cautious attitude to the market.
The market is the aggregation of investors. Therefore, futures and options’ trading volumes are valid indicators for knowing the trend of the crypto market. Rising trading volume in the derivative market means investors have interests in the future, but shrinking trading volume means a more cautious view.
When we have a look at the trading volume in last week, it is easy to find that investors’ confidence for the BTC is strengthened after Bitcoin hit $20,000: before that moment, the trading volume was lower than $25 billion per day on average, but after that, trading volume soared up to $80.4 billion.
But we couldn't distinguish the future according to trading volume only. The open interest is another indicator often reflecting market participation. Compared with recent weeks, the open interest of Bitcoin futures reached a new peak after Bitcoin broke all-time high records, which implies the market's flourishing.
Compared with last week, the funding rate turns positive with a high rise, especially for the coin-margined contract. This indicates more investors are keeping a positive view for the future of the market, at least for the future of Bitcoin.
Recent volatility surfaces reveal that investors tend to buy options. Combining volatility surfaces with funding rates, it is obvious that investors tend to buy call options, which can also prove investors’ confidence for the market. However, for the long term, the volatility surface reveals that investors still hold an optimistic but cautious attitude in general.
The last but most vital information is from implied volatility’s term structure. These curves illustrate that investors show more confidence for short-term than long-term. In general, the next year’s implied volatility is upraised, which means that we will face a more fluctuant market in the future.
Highlights Picked by TokenInsight
Coinbase Submitted Files to SEC to go Public
On Thursday (Dec. 17, 2020), U.S. major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase confidentially filed preliminary documents, Form S-1, with SEC, getting ready for its initial public offering. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s prices soared above $20,000.
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HongKong digital asset platform OSL announced on Dec. 15, 2020 that they are the first firm to become licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct dealing in securities and automatic trading services of digital assets.
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