Sleepy September has been and gone — and historically, October tends to deliver double-digit percentage growth for Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin has started off October with a bang — dramatically surging from $44,907 to $47,604 in the space of 25 minutes on Friday.
September was rather forgettable for the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, with BTC’s price falling by 7.03% over the course of the month.
That’s the fifth consecutive year where Bitcoin has ended September in negative territory.
By contrast, BTC has secured double-digit percentage gains in six of the past eight Octobers — with 2014 and 2018 the only years that ended in the red.
Crypto Twitter is also beginning to look at PlanB’s stock-to-flow model with a greater degree of seriousness after he accurately predicted Bitcoin’s end price two months in a row.
The analyst — who expects fireworks to fly in the final quarter of the year — successfully forecast that BTC would close August at $47,000, and September at $43,000.
Setting out his targets for the rest of 2021, he anticipates Bitcoin will reach $63,000 in October, $98,000 in November, and $135,000 in December.
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Caution Remains
Not everyone is subscribed to the view that we’ll see a repeat of last year’s drama.
Bitcoin started October 2020 at $10,000 and raced to $29,000 by Dec. 31 — securing a new all-time high after a three-year wait.
Some fear that China’s clampdown on cryptocurrencies, and America’s plans to introduce tighter oversight over stablecoins, means the mood music is different this year.
Historically, data shows that Bitcoin has managed to secure some of its biggest gains in the fourth quarter of the year, running from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31.
BTC’s value surged by 168% over this three-month period in 2020 — while gains of 215% were seen in Q4 2017 and 480% in Q4 2013. Given how Bitcoin has been known to operate in four-year cycles, some believe triple-digit gains are achievable in this new quarter, too.
But what goes up must come down. There have also been painful pullbacks in Q4s past — most notably in 2019 (13.5%) and 2018 (42.1%).
