Senate Republicans rejected Democrats' CLARITY Act counteroffer hours before a Sept. 15 procedural vote, pushing Polymarket odds of 2026 passage down to just 14%.
Clarity Act Bill News
Senate Republicans rejected a Democratic counteroffer on the CLARITY Act on the morning of Sept. 15, hours before the chamber was scheduled to hold its first procedural vote on the cryptocurrency market structure bill. The rejection left negotiations at a standstill. The bill's path forward grew significantly more uncertain as both sides remained far apart on a key ethics provision tied to President Donald Trump's crypto-related financial activity.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, the bill's lead Republican negotiator, said the Democratic proposal offered no new ground from positions held before the August recess. "Republicans have moved substantially on every front, including agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats have not budged an inch," she said in a statement. Her spokesperson, Katie Warbinton, told The Block the Democratic offer looked "identical" to their opening position weeks earlier.
Both Sides Divided Over Ethics Enforcement Powers
Senate Republicans released what they called their final draft on Sunday night, Sept. 13, after incorporating more than 100 changes Democrats had previously requested. The revised bill allows state attorneys general to sue crypto exchanges and the Justice Department to enforce ethics provisions. It also requires public officials to divest any "significant financial interest" in crypto assets or place those holdings in a blind trust.
Democrats remained unsatisfied with those terms. Sen. Elizabeth Warren said the enforcement structure contains a built-in loophole, because the provision ultimately depends on the Justice Department deciding to act. She argued the bill would not prevent Trump from continuing to profit from crypto activity under that framework. Democrats sent their counteroffer to Republicans on Monday night, Sept. 14, according to Politico. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia told Semafor the Democratic position had been consistent for months. "This is language Democrats have been seeking for the better part of a year," he said.
Banking groups also pressed lawmakers separately on Sept. 15 to tighten restrictions on stablecoin interest and rewards. A bipartisan group of state attorneys general sent a warning that the legislation could limit states' ability to prosecute crypto-related fraud. That additional external pressure added to the complexity of finding a last-minute compromise.
Related Article: Real-World Assets (RWA): Bridging the Gap Between DeFi and TradFi
Prediction Markets Slash Passage Odds to 14%
Prediction markets moved sharply on the news of the breakdown. Polymarket traders priced the CLARITY Act's chances of becoming law in 2026 at 14% on the morning of Sept. 15, down from roughly 30% just 24 hours earlier. On Kalshi, the contract covering passage of any qualifying crypto market structure bill before Oct. 1, 2027, dropped to 36% from around 53% on the morning of Sept. 14.
Monday had briefly lifted prediction market odds on hopes that Republican concessions would finally end months of deadlock. Those gains reversed entirely once the Democratic counteroffer landed. By Sept. 15, Kalshi traders were pricing only a 51% probability that any qualifying crypto market structure measure would become law by Jan. 1, 2028, a significant shift toward a longer timeline compared with the optimism seen just the day before.
The Senate's Sept. 15 vote was a procedural cloture motion that required 60 votes to advance. If successful, the bill would still require a second Senate floor vote before moving to the House and then to the president's desk.
This article contains links to third-party websites or other content for information purposes only (“Third-Party Sites”). The Third-Party Sites are not under the control of CoinMarketCap, and CoinMarketCap is not responsible for the content of any Third-Party Site, including without limitation any link contained in a Third-Party Site, or any changes or updates to a Third-Party Site. CoinMarketCap is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, approval or recommendation by CoinMarketCap of the site or any association with its operators. This article is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is important to do your own research and analysis before making any material decisions related to any of the products or services described. This article is not intended as, and shall not be construed as, financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s [company’s] own and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinMarketCap.
