Standard Chartered set a $10 end-2030 target for ARB, citing Robinhood Chain's $5M monthly revenue run rate and a $4T tokenization forecast as key drivers.
Arbitrum Token News
Standard Chartered set a $10 price target for Arbitrum (ARB) by the end of 2030 on Sept. 15, initiating coverage of the token with a forecast that it will outperform both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) over the same period.
ARB was trading at $0.14 on Sept. 15, putting the end-2030 target roughly 70 times above its current price. The bank projects BTC reaching $500,000 and ETH reaching $40,000 by end-2030, making the implied ARB gain proportionally larger than either.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, framed the call around a shift he expects to define the next four years: traditional financial firms building their own blockchain networks. Arbitrum sits at the center of that thesis as a layer-2 network that provides the technology stack companies use to launch their own chains, collecting a fee each time.
Robinhood Chain Rewrites Arbitrum's Revenue Math
Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program (AEP), Arbitrum receives a rolling fee equal to 10% of net protocol revenue from every external chain built on its technology. Of that 10%, 8% flows to the Arbitrum decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) treasury and the remaining 2% goes to a developer fund. Kendrick acknowledged that ARB token holders currently have no direct claim on those fees, and listed this as one of the key risks to his forecast.
Robinhood Chain launched on July 1 as the first major institutional example of the AEP model. It generated average daily fee revenue of $2.8 million in the first two weeks of September, and by Sept. 1 it had produced $3.75 million in cumulative user fees, sending roughly $370,000 to Arbitrum in a single 24-hour period. At its September run rate, Arbitrum is on track to collect around $5 million in AEP fees for the month, more than five times its monthly revenue before Robinhood Chain went live. Robinhood Chain paid approximately $360,000 in licensing fees in July alone, which accounted for 35% of total Arbitrum DAO income that month.
Kendrick noted that Robinhood Chain's early activity has been driven primarily by meme coin launchpads and trading apps, rather than the tokenized stocks and traditional assets the network was designed around. Robinhood has also been subsidizing gas fees for users of its official wallet under a 90-day program set to expire around the end of September 2026. Standard Chartered set interim price targets for ARB at $0.50 by end-2026, $1.50 by end-2027, $3.50 by end-2028, and $6.50 by end-2029.
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$4T Tokenization Forecast Underpins the Long-Term Case
Standard Chartered's longer-range argument centers on the growth of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). The bank projects the total value of tokenized assets will grow from roughly $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. Tokenized equities alone could reach $750 billion over the same period. RWA(dot)xyz data puts cumulative tokenized asset value at nearly $39 billion as of Sept. 15.
Kendrick said Robinhood Chain’s early commercial success raises the probability that other traditional finance firms will choose Arbitrum's technology stack when bringing assets on-chain. "The early success of Robinhood Chain increases the probability that similar TradFi chains will also launch via the Arbitrum tech stack," he wrote. He also said markets may re-rate ARB's valuation multiple closer to those applied to layer-1 blockchains if the revenue model proves durable.
Standard Chartered flagged several risks to its forecast. Slower asset tokenization, competition from rival blockchains, and the lack of direct fee distribution to ARB holders were all cited. Kendrick also pointed to the DTCC's work on tokenized equities and unresolved US regulatory questions, including the Clarity Act, as factors that could affect the timeline. Separately, 92.6 million ARB is scheduled to unlock on Sept. 16.
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