CLARITY Act Given 10% Odds Before Midterms as Industry Eyes Regulators

Crypto Regulation News

The CEO of a crypto-focused policy organization said Aug. 18 that the CLARITY Act has roughly a one-in-10 chance of becoming law before the midterm elections, as competing interests from banks, securities firms, and derivatives companies continue to complicate negotiations. Miller Whitehouse-Levine, who leads the Solana Policy Institute, spoke at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026 and said federal regulators should begin acting on digital asset rules without waiting for Congress to finish the bill.

"Right now, I would say it's in August recess purgatory," Whitehouse-Levine told The Block. "As the end of the clock winds down on this Congress, getting the bill done becomes increasingly more difficult."

He noted that the Sept. 15 cloture vote would be only the first of several procedural steps the bill needs to clear, describing his position as "hopeful, but realistic about its odds."

The Clock Is Ticking

Prediction market data reflects similar skepticism. On Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 sits at 21%, on more than $7 million in trading volume. On Kalshi, the odds are at 23%, down from 50% less than a month ago.

Whitehouse-Levine said this attempt at crypto market structure legislation, which he described as the sixth such effort in the US, has attracted more competing interests than previous ones. Trump's personal involvement in crypto has created political difficulties for Democrats, while banks and large lenders continue to push back on stablecoin yield provisions. Securities firms and derivatives companies are separately focused on clauses that could affect their businesses. "You have all these new interests that have woken up to the fact that, oh no, the Clarity Act could move, we better get their act together," he said. "And them getting their act together just means more stakeholders involved, which always makes it harder."

Related Article: Ripple CLO Says Sept. 15 Senate Vote Will Test CLARITY Act Future

He said a failed bill would also represent a major loss of congressional resources. "One cannot underestimate the tens of thousands of man-hours that Congressional staffers and members of Congress have spent on this bill," he said, calling a collapse of the legislation a "massive opportunity cost."

Can't Afford To Keep Waiting

Whitehouse-Levine said his dwindling confidence in Congress has made regulatory action more urgent. "I am hopeful that the regulatory agencies move quickly, because my hope in Congress's ability to deliver is diminishing," he said. His remarks came as the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a framework called "Regulation Crypto Assets," which would create exemptions for digital assets from certain registration requirements.

The Solana Policy Institute is pushing for regulatory pathways covering token fundraising and for exemptions that would allow more securities and derivatives trading on-chain in the US. "We're going to be pretty focused on these regulatory actions now," Whitehouse-Levine said. "I think we can't afford to keep waiting for Congress at this point."