Bitcoin futures traders closed about 49,000 BTC of positions in a week by taking profits, and K33 now sees more room for Bitcoin to rise than fall from $83K.
Key Facts
Bitcoin futures open interest fell about 49,000 BTC in the seven days to Monday, the largest weekly drop since October 2025, according to K33 Research.
K33 traced the drop to profit-taking and expiring CME contracts, and with little leverage left to unwind, it sees more room for Bitcoin to rise than fall.
Bitcoin is trading just below $84,000 to $85,000, where Glassnode says long-term holders' coins cluster and where the rally needs to hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) futures traders closed out about 49,000 BTC of positions in the seven days to Monday, the largest weekly drop since October 2025, according to K33 Research. Open interest counted in Bitcoin is now at its lowest since March, with the price just below where long-term holders own the most coins.
Traders closed about $4.1 billion of positions, taking profits and letting CME contracts expire instead of rolling them, K33 said. With little leverage left to unwind, the firm sees more room for Bitcoin to rise than fall. Glassnode says it first needs to clear $84,000 to $85,000.
Bitcoin traded at $83,362 as of 2:15 p.m. ET Tuesday, down 0.7% over 24 hours and about a third below its October 2025 record, CoinMarketCap data shows.
"With little leverage left to trigger forced liquidations and holders reluctant to sell 33% below ATH, we see considerable upside asymmetry," K33 Research wrote on Monday.
Why Did Open Interest Fall? Traders Chose to Take Profits
The selling came with low volatility and falling funding rates. Bitcoin liquidations totaled about $51 million over 24 hours, CoinGlass data shows.
"Every larger OI drop came with liquidations, whereas this one resembles good ol' profit realization," K33 head of research Vetle Lunde wrote on X on Tuesday.
Fund buyers took the other side. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew a net $2.39 billion from Sept. 21 to 25, Farside data shows. Perpetual futures traders and profit-takers sold into that buying, Glassnode found.
Why Did CME Positions Expire? Carry Barely Beat Treasury Bills
About a third of the weekly decline came in one day. CME open interest fell 16,075 BTC as the September contract expired, the third-largest daily drop on record, K33 said. The share of contracts held to settlement was 15.79%, the highest since June 2023.
The October contract trades at a 5.1% annualized premium over spot. K33 said that left basis traders "with little reason to roll." A three-month Treasury bill yielded 4.28% on Monday, US Treasury data shows.
What Does It Mean for Price? Less Leverage to Unwind
Bitcoin is up 35% from its August low while open interest measured in coins is down almost 20%, Glassnode wrote on Tuesday. The firm said that may leave the rally less exposed to sudden leverage flushes.
K33 also found that high settlement shares and a weak basis have preceded a median 30-day return of 8.9% since 2022.
What Would Confirm It: A Close Above $85K
Bitcoin climbed above $84,300 early Tuesday before slipping back toward $83,000, CoinMarketCap data shows.
Positions are still large in dollar terms. Futures and options open interest sits above its usual range, and short-term holders are taking profits at a high rate, Glassnode said on Monday.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Monday, a 19-year high according to K33.
Spot trading has stayed quiet through the rise. K33 read spot volume below its yearly average as a sign that sellers were running out.
"More long-term holder coins sit at $84k–$85k than at any other price on the chart. Price needs to break through and hold above this level for the rally to continue," Glassnode wrote on X on Tuesday.
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