October also closed down 3.69% despite usually posting gains of around 19.92%, raising questions about whether seasonal trends remain reliable indicators.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin has posted losses for two straight months, breaking its historical pattern of strong November performance. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $87,305, down 20.60% from the start of the month.
November typically delivers average returns of 40.82% for Bitcoin, making it the strongest month historically. October also closed down 3.69% despite usually posting gains of around 19.92%, raising questions about whether seasonal trends remain reliable indicators.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the current quarterly performance has defied historic seasonality metrics. The asset's price has fallen below the lower band of the short-term holders' cost-basis model for only the third time since early 2024.
Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, have an average realized price of $86,787. Many buyers who purchased above $106,000 are now selling at a loss, according to the report.
The recent decline stems from market froth around the $106,000 and $118,000 levels, where buying activity was significantly heavier than usual. This created a deeper layer of holders now capitulating at losses.
Bitfinex analysts outlined two possible paths forward for the market. Either a meaningful resurgence in demand will materialize, or the market will enter a longer and potentially deeper accumulation phase.
Some indicators suggest whale demand is slowly increasing. Santiment reported that wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin have risen by 0.47%, adding 91 wallets since Nov. 11.
December has historically been quieter for Bitcoin, with average returns of 4.75% since 2013. The market now watches whether demand will return or if further accumulation lies ahead for crypto investors.
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