Bitcoin climbed above $79K after Trump signaled a possible end to the US-Iran war, pushing oil lower, while Fed rate hike odds hit 92.7% ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin (BTC) pushed back above $79,000 on Sept. 14 as markets responded to signals from US President Donald Trump that the conflict with Iran could be nearing an end. The move erased weekend losses and put BTC up roughly 3% on the day.
Bitcoin Price Chart Source: CoinMarketCap
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran "wants to make a deal, quickly and badly," and said the US was open to engagement. A follow-up post predicted oil prices would "drop like a rock" once the military conflict ended. Oil prices briefly dipped on the comments before stabilizing, with US WTI crude holding above $100 per barrel and Brent crude trading at $105 per barrel at the time of writing.
US equities initially opened higher on the news before turning red. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% at the time of writing, weighed down by ongoing uncertainty over key oil-transit routes in the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.
Fed Rate Hike Now Nearly Fully Priced In
Markets have moved decisively toward pricing in a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at its Sept. 17 meeting. Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool put the probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75–4% at 92.7%, up sharply from 59.4% a week earlier.
Trading firm QCP Capital said prolonged high oil prices could complicate the Fed's path forward. It warned that elevated energy costs feeding into transport and logistics pricing could lift inflation expectations and limit the central bank's ability to pause its tightening cycle, even if broader economic data weakens.
"This dynamic creates policy tension: continued energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive, while economic data weakness from higher energy costs could argue for patience," QCP wrote on Sept. 14.
Related Article: Bitcoin Rallies Near $80K Shelf After CPI — Could Fed Rate Hike Trigger New Lows?
Bitcoin Reclaims Key Technical Level
QCP also argued that with a 25-basis-point hike already widely expected, the focus for markets has shifted to how Fed officials frame their decision and what it signals about the path ahead. It said an overall muted reaction to last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirmed that language from policymakers now matters more than the rate move itself.
Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,430 on Sept. 14 after closing the prior weekly candle below it. The level is considered a key technical support line for BTC bulls seeking to confirm a return to an upward trend.
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