The analyst stated he firmly believes the upward movement has finished and prices will likely trade between $70,000 and $80,000, with possibilities extending even lower.
Bitcoin News
Jon Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn and Elliott Wave analyst, projects Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 or lower as the bull market that began in early 2023 has ended. The forecast suggests a potential 35% decline from current levels around $108,000.
Glover's analysis follows Bitcoin's recent drop from $126,000 to $104,000, which he interprets as confirmation that the five-wave upward structure has completed. He expects the incoming #bear market to persist until at least late 2026.
The analyst stated he firmly believes the upward movement has finished and prices will likely trade between $70,000 and $80,000, with possibilities extending even lower. While a retest of record highs around $124,000 or slightly higher cannot be entirely ruled out, the broader trend has flipped bearish.
Elliott Wave Theory, introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, posits that collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form five-wave structures in the main trend direction, consisting of three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin's bullish five-wave pattern initiated in late 2022 when prices sat below $20,000. The fifth wave peaked above $126,000 earlier this month, falling short of Glover's initial $140,000 to $150,000 year-end projection made in early August.
Momentum stalled beyond $125,000 this month, prompting warnings that repeated failures to hold that level would weaken the bull case. The subsequent tumble to $105,000 last week confirmed an early end to the bull run, according to Glover's analysis.
After breaking below $108,000, Glover declared the bull run officially over. His assessment weighs two potential paths: one leading to $145,000, and another suggesting the market has already seen its highs for this cycle.
The bearish outlook aligns with #Bitcoin's historical pattern of peaking roughly 18 months after each halving event before entering bear markets. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, placing the current timing within that typical window.
Data from Amberdata supports the bearish sentiment, showing Bitcoin's Deribit-listed put options trading at a premium compared to calls through the September 2026 expiry. Put options provide downside protection, and their premium pricing indicates traders are positioning for extended downside risks into next year.
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